Pakistan After Bhutto

Less than a day after gun and bomb attacks killed Pakistan’s iconic opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, her death has already spurred more violence in her fragile homeland. The New York Times reports that violence erupted in cities across Pakistan today, as hundreds of thousands marched in Bhutto’s ancestral village for her funeral procession. Several news outlets have quoted a report from the Italian news agency AKI that an al-Qaeda leader in Afghanistan claimed credit for Bhutto’s killing (CNN). Bhutto, the first woman to lead an Islamic state, hoped to win a third term as prime minister in critical parliamentary elections scheduled for January 8. Her death leaves pressing questions about whether the elections will run on schedule and how fair they will be. Already signs of political uncertainty and future troubles loom as analysts try to guess at Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s next move. Musharraf announced a three-day period of mourning (Bloomberg) for Bhutto. Pakistan’s current Prime Minister Mohammadmian Soomro announced December 28 that elections would be held as scheduled (NDTV) and urged Pakistanis to remain calm. But other news reports suggest a former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, will boycott elections (AP). Before Bhutto's assassination, Sharif's supporters were also targeted (WashPost) in a different political rally in Islamabad. Bhutto’s death means the United States will have to rethink its strategy (NPR) for nudging forward democratization in Pakistan. It had been pushing for a deal between Musharraf and Bhutto in the hope that Bhutto’s return to power would lend legitamacy to Musharraf’s increasingly unpopular government. Despite the recent imposition of emergency rule by Musharraf, Washington remained optimistic about the January elections. In a media conference call following Bhutto's death, CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey said the elections had the potential to move the country forward toward a more manageable civilian-military partnership, adding that “Benazir would have been a significant part of that.” December 27th was a bad day for United States, he says, and it “will be paying a price for it for a while.”

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Demographic profile and government

Demographic Profile Contrary to its image, India is a surprisingly young country, with a median age of 24. Around 40% of its population falls in the rage of 20-44 years. Compared to the older generation, this younger generation is more confident, has more liberal and consumerist values, and is more ambitious.This is a quite recent change in the country's demographics, and has implications for changes in cultural values.There is a wide urban-rural divide in India. Indian society is primarily agrarian. More than 70% of India's population lives in villages, and subsists on agriculture. However, the contribution of agriculture is only 23%. India has one of the largest populations of technically qualified manpower, comprising around 15 million doctors, engineers and scientists. On the other hand, the literacy rate in the country is just over 50%.India has a large linguistic diversity. It has 18 constitutionally recognized major languages, in addition to around 1,600 other languages and dialects. There is no single language which is spoken by all Indians. According to the constitution, Hindi is the official national language. However, less than 40% of people in India can speak or understand Hindi. English is the co-official language, since it is spoken by most of the educated Indian class, and is the common language used in business situations.

Government and Political Structure India achieved its freedom from the British in 1947, and opted to be a parliamentary democracy. Its constitution, which was adopted in 1949, incorporates many features of the constitutional systems of the western democracies, specifically of the United Kingdom and the United States of America.The parliament is bicameral, consisting of Rajya Sabha [council of state or upper house] and Lok Sabha [house of the people or lower house.India has a federal structure and is divided into 28 states and seven Union Territories. Each state and Union Territory also has its own elected parliamentary assembly.India is the world's largest democracy with an electorate of more than 600mn people. The parliament consists of more than 534 elected MPs [Members of Parliament]. In the 2004 parliamentary elections, India also used indigenously developed electronic voting machines for conducting the elections.India has 7 national political parties, and more than 40 political parties recognized by the Election Commission.The President is the head of state, but it is largely a ceremonial post.
The actual legislative power resides with the council of ministers, headed by the Prime Minister, who is the leader of the party in the majority.Voting age is 18 years. A cadre of civil servants, who represent the bureaucracy, support the political leadership for executing the government policies. These government officers are selected through a very tough competitive examination across the country, and represent an intelligent and elite class. The judiciary in India is independent of political/ governmental influences. It has often made decisions which are critical of--or even against--the government's official policies. This occurs if such policies are believed by the judiciary to go against the basic spirit of the Indian Constitution.

Winning the Right War

More than six years after the start of the ‘war on terror’, America and its allies are less safe, their enemies stronger and more numerous, and the war’s key geographic battleground, the greater Middle East, dangerously unstable. In Iraq, thousands of American soldiers, and tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers and civilians, have been killed or wounded while more than 150,000 US troops fight to contain an insurgency and a civil war at a cost of over $300 million per day. In Iran, an Islamic fundamentalist regime remains firmly in power and is defiantly pursuing a nuclear-weapons programme, undermining American efforts in Iraq and subsidising increasingly brazen terrorist groups in the Middle East. The Gaza Strip is now led by one terrorist group, Hamas, while another, Hizbullah, is increasingly influential in Lebanon and increasingly popular on the streets of the Middle East. Syria remains under an anti-American dictatorship allied to Iran, and no real peace process between Israel and any of its neighbours exists.
More broadly, according to repeated public opinion polls, the popularity and credibility of the United States is at an all-time low. Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is far more popular in the Muslim world than President George W. Bush; most Muslims would prefer to see China, Russia or France replace America as the dominant outside power; and majorities even among America’s traditional allies now have a highly unfavourable view of the United States. While the US homeland has not been attacked since 2001, Osama bin Laden remains at large, and there have been far more Islamist terrorist attacks around the world since 2001 than in the six years before the ‘war on terror’ was launched. Far from being ‘on the march’, democracy in the Middle East is in trouble, and where it has advanced, in most cases – including Palestine, Iraq, Egypt and Lebanon – it has produced unintended and often unwanted consequences. For a war that has now been going on longer than the Second World War, the balance sheet is dismal